Indecision may or may not be my problem.
-Jimmy Buffett
Last week, we discussed creating mental space for making a few good decisions and understanding that our perspectives and frames come with blind spots. Read on to learn some more steps to a sound decision-making process.
Fall in Love with the Problem
When faced with a challenge, we tend to ask too narrow of a question that drives “this or that” or “yes or no” options. For example, if I’m hungry after dinner, I could ask myself whether to have cake or ice-cream for dessert. A better question might be “how might I prevent or satisfy after-dinner-hunger?” That question opens up a world of choices, from considering other dessert types, to changing eating times, to eating a bigger dinner, etc.
Fall in love with the problem, before settling on either-or choices. A few simple ways of doing that are:
- Ask others with different perspectives how they see the challenge. Ask “what am I missing?” or “what’s another way of looking at this?”
- Look at the issues below the surface— the root causes— which may be the actual problem that needs to be solved.
- Frame a question in a way that does not contain a solution in it. Make it broad enough to generate lots of options but narrow enough to be practical.
If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on the solution, I would spend the first 55 minutes determining the proper question to ask… for once I know the proper question, I could solve the problem in less than five minutes.
-Albert Einstein
Once you settle on a broad question, generate good options using these steps:
- Get clear on design criteria, i.e. the attributes that any solution you come up with must meet.
- Diverge before you converge. Brainstorm many options before you settle on a few, then compare these to see what might be possible.
- Gather representative evidence to form options. Beware of classic mistakes at this step: over-reliance on the evidence that’s easiest to get, paying too much attention to the most recent piece of data you’ve seen, or hyper-focusing on only one piece of evidence.
- Know your unknowns. Figure out what you do not know and determine how you’ll address these gaps.
- Surface assumptions and limits to your knowledge. Rate your level of confidence in any assertions.
- Balance your biases by inviting counterarguments and disconfirming questions. Always have a trusted Devil’s Advocate on hand to challenge you!
Don’t just keep collecting data in the hopes that the answer will magically appear. In this world of uncertainty, there’s often more than one right answer. Do like Colin Powell and Jeff Bezos — shoot for 70% of the info and call it good enough.
Make sure you converge on several vastly different options. You’ll know you’re on the right track if there’s lots of disagreement!
Assess, Test, Decide
When assessing your options, be honest about the uncertainty and estimate your confidence levels. Consider the average experience of people who have tried something similar and what can reasonably be expected, rather than the most successful example. Surface assumptions and the impacts that they might have on the outcome.
Where the situation is relatively predictable and you have relevant expertise, it’s fine to go with your gut. As the uncertainty increases, so should your level of analytical rigor, starting with a qualitative assessment. You can use rules of thumb (ex. threshold rules with pre-set criteria) to screen out choices, such as a hurdle rate for a capital investment. Or create a good old-fashioned pros and cons list. You can weigh your decision criteria for more rigor using more complex assessment options like computer models, simulations, and scenario planning. Where there is a lot of uncertainty, it’s better to test then predict. Prototype your options, test them (with end-users where applicable) and learn what will work as you go, before going all in on a big decision. You can use this approach not just for testing products and services but also for building partnerships and creating strategies.
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth
-Mike Tyson
Prepare to Fail
Once you settle on a decision, it is wise to think through all the things that could go wrong, because something probably will. If you’ve already surfaced assumptions and risks related to your options, you’re well ahead of the game!
Some things you can do to prepare:
- Imagine the most-successful and least-successful scenario — and prepare for both.
- Create a list of risks and determine how you will mitigate them.
- Give yourself a “safety factor”; some wiggle room that can buffer errors in your projections.
- Set “trip-wires”; signals that will alert you that you are off-track before it is too late.
- Fail fast. Set up experiments to test your assumptions before going all in.
Another great tool here is the “Pre-Mortem”, where you imagine a future where your project has failed. Then you identify all the things that went wrong with the project. Even though you’re just imagining, it’s amazing how this future-thinking can help you see risks that you might not have already noticed. After you’ve jotted down “everything that went wrong”, note how likely each thing is to happen and what each of the consequences might be.
What’s your decision-making challenge? Ask Jess at Jess.McGlyn@catalynics.com.
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